Ember is a public AI prediction engine that publishes locked, audited forecasts from three frontier models — Claude, Grok, and Gemini — on live Polymarket markets, scored against the crowd and permanently archived.
What is Ember?
Ember is an intelligence layer for prediction markets. Each day at 7:00 ET, three independent models (Claude Anthropic, Grok xAI, Gemini Google) call live markets before they resolve. Every forecast is lock-timestamped, Brier-scored, and written to a public, read-only record. Ember’s daily prediction engine is paused after 71 days; the full audited history — 753 resolved calls, 0 edited predictions — remains free and open at emberfyi.com.
Key Features
- Three independent model calls — Claude, Grok, and Gemini each generate a probability on the same market without consulting each other. All three are published side by side before resolution.
- Brier scoring — Accuracy is measured using Brier score (lower is better). Current scores (n=135 head‑to‑head): Claude 0.1310, Grok 0.1327, Gemini 0.1449; the crowd leads at 0.1064.
- Locked, immutable record — Every prediction is timestamped before outcome. Zero edits after the fact. Methodology locked (v5_2026_05_13). See the full prediction record.
- 23 public correction notices — All infrastructure issues that affected data integrity are disclosed at emberfyi.com/corrections. No predictions were ever altered.
- Live divergence alerts — Markets where any model disagrees with the crowd by 10 + points are flagged. Today’s largest gap: Claude 4% vs. crowd 9% on “Will the US confirm aliens exist before 2027?”
- Public API —
/v1/divergences, /v1/calls, /v1/scores endpoints return JSON. Free trial key (100 calls, 14 days, no card) at emberfyi.com/api.
- Full ecosystem map — Ember operates in Layer 3 (Intelligence) of the prediction‑market stack, alongside venues, data infrastructure, execution tools, and traders.
Who is it for?
- Prediction‑market traders — Compare model divergences from crowd prices with a verifiable accuracy record. Alerts when AI and crowd split by 10+ points.
- Developers — Build dashboards, copy‑trade bots, or research tools on the JSON API. Webhooks planned.
- Researchers — Reproduce Brier scores, audit the locked methodology, and analyze the 365‑day arc (294 days remaining in the experiment).
What can you do with Ember?
- Track AI vs. crowd on live markets — View the locked probabilities and current crowd price for 54 live Polymarket markets on the Arena page. Each call shows model reasoning.
- Search the audited record — Filter resolved markets by date, category, or outcome. Full dataset available for download via inquiry.
- Build on the data — Use the API to fetch live divergences, locked calls, and resolved scores. Integrate with execution tools like Betmoar.fun or PolyHelper.io.
How does Ember work?
Each morning, live Polymarket markets flow into three AI models. Ember’s signal engine locks each model’s probability at 7:00 ET, writes it to the permanent record, and scores it against the crowd after resolution. Models ingest Polymarket order‑book context, X (Twitter) sentiment (Grok), and live search results (Gemini). No model averages — Claude’s single call is the audited primary.
FAQ
Is Ember free?
Yes. All paywalls have been removed; the full audited record and live archive are free and open. The daily prediction engine is paused, but existing calls remain publicly accessible at emberfyi.com/predictions. Previously a $29/mo Arena tier existed; its content is now included in the free offering.
